Corruption Risk Forecast

Corruption and transparency indicators for over 120 countries to diagnose the present, forecast the future, and set policy targets.

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Three Lenses on Corruption Risk

In contrast to perception-based measures of corruption that reflect a country's reputation,
the CRF's corruption indicators measure specific components of public integrity (IPI)
and government transparency (T-Index) to forecast future corruption risks (CRF)

Index of Public Integrity (IPI)

See each country’s ability to control corruption

The IPI assesses a society’s capacity to control corruption and ensure that public resources are spent with integrity. Evidence from comparisons across countries shows that establishing effective control of corruption requires much more than the mere adoption of specific tools and strict legal regulations. It relies on a balance between a state calibrated to reduce the possibility of the abuse of influence and a society’s capacity to hold its government accountable.

The IPI illustrates the most important dimensions of this equilibrium through 6 components: Administrative Transparency, Online Services, Budget Transparency, Judicial Independence, Press Freedom, and e-Citizenship. Read more on the IPI Methodology.

Transparency Index (T-Index)

See what public data governments are sharing

The T-index is a unique assessment of government transparency based on how much public information governments offer to their citizens. The T-Index score encompasses both de facto (actual availability of data online) and de jure (signature of treaties and implementation of laws) aspects of transparency. This index can be used as an important reference for business risk analysts as well as a tool for civic actors and transparency advocates around the world.

Read more on the T-index Methodology.

Corruption Risk Forecast (CRF)

Learn where each country’s corruption risk is heading

The Corruption Risk Forecast is built on top of a new generation of objective indicators of corruption. It allows the forecasting of trends at a country level. This provides investors and business strategists with insight about future corruption risks, and allows activists and international donors to target countries where interventions can have the greatest impact.

The forecast draws from 10 years of data on control of corruption, including 5 components from the IPI: Administrative Transparency, Budget Transparency, Judicial Independence, Press Freedom, and e-Citizenship. These trends are moderated by the most recent political events. Read more on the Forecast Methodology.